Bayesian Trend Analysis Statistical Support

National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring Networks are charged with implementing a long-term ecological monitoring program to assess status and trends in the condition of natural resources across NPS units. Each of these five Intermountain Region I&M networks (Northern Colorado Plateau, Southern Colorado Plateau, Rocky Mountain, Greater Yellowstone, and Chihuahuan Desert Networks) has developed a monitoring protocol for upland vegetation and soils, although the sampling designs, monitoring methods, and specific objectives differ somewhat from network to network. The networks have been collecting monitoring data for a number of years (ranging from 5-9 years) using a variety of rotating panel designs and are planning to begin analysis for their first trend reports in the next few years. We are seeking collective statistical support as we consider the appropriate analytic approaches and begin to develop the work flows and analytic models to detect trends and relate them to important ecosystem drivers. Through this project, Conservation Science Partners (CSP) will provide statistical support for each of several phases of the analysis process. This will enable the datasets from the monitoring programs to be effectively analyzed so the results and implications for management can be disseminated to parks and partners to inform decision making in National Parks.