A -- AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION STUDY

The U.S. Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Marine Fisheries Service intends to negotiate on a non-competitive basis with Columbia University Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory to conduct a project to understand and model decision-making in agricultural production systems in the Argentine pampas in the face of climate variability and other risk factors, and in response to improved climate information and climate forecasts. Activities to be performed 1. Model the value of climate information (estimate the economic value of ENSO-related climate forecasts for agriculture in this region). The methodology will integrate simulated and observed decision studies. These include a crop yield simulation, whole farm optimization model, and a valuation of information for alternative objective functions. 2. Identify farmers’ objective functions (using a sample of farmers in the Pampas) through a combination of carefully designed decision experiments, supplemented by surveys and focus groups. 3. Provide all participating farmers with personalized feedback on the goals and objectives and decision processes that are identified throughout the study. Deliverables 1. An annual report is required for each of three years. 2. A final report is also required. Period of performance: Award date until September, 2007