R -- Develop a Wildfire-Weather Prediction System

Notice of Intent to negotiate a sole source follow-on contract to Dr. John Dutton of Weather Ventures, LTD. of Boalsburg, Pennsylvania. This requirement is being procured in accordance with FAR Part 13, Simplified Acquisitions Procedures with an estimated value of less than $70,000. Dr. Dutton has developed previous Probabilistic Forecasts for Wildfire Risk Assessment and Management in a Feasibility Study and provided the conceptual foundation, system design and critical algorithms for creating a future operational system. Dr. Dutton will develop a probabilistic fire-weather prediction system based on analyses of observed and predicted weather conditions associated with historical wildfires; investigate wildfire occurrence databases and identify atmospheric conditions and proccesses that impact wildfire development; develop a probabilistic fire-weather prediction system for the assessment and management of wildfire risk and then develop a prototype real-time prediction system. This notice of intent is not a request for competitive proposals. Therefore, no solicitation documents will be issued. Award is anticipated on or about August 17, 2005.