U.S. Macroeconomic Consulting, Forecasting and Modeling Services

This is a combined synopsis/solicitation for commercial items prepared in accordance with the format in Subpart 12.603 of the Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR), as supplemented with additional information included in this notice. This announcement constitutes the only solicitation; quotes are being requested and a written solicitation will not be issued. The Request for Quote number for this procurement is FHF-12-Q-0315. This procurement is issued as a Request for Quote (RFQ). The RFQ documents and incorporated provisions and clauses are those in effect through Federal Acquisition Circular 2005-59. The government anticipates awarding one Firm Fixed Price (FFP) purchase order as a result of this solicitation. The associated North American Industry Classification System Code (NAICS) is 511210 - Subscription Publishers. Size Standard $25.0 Million. STATEMENT OF WORK: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Division of Housing, Mission and Goals (DHMG) has a requirement for subscription services designed to keep its economic and policy staff up-to-date on U.S. economic and financial market developments and prospects. Service should include written reports on key high-frequency data and financial market developments, monthly updates on the outlook for the U.S. economy and policy, regular reports conveying the details of the U.S. forecast, access to the vendor's model of the U.S. economy and related training and support, and access to vendor's senior staff to discuss the U.S. outlook and model. At a minimum, the vendor shall provide the following services: 1) INTERPRETATION OF HIGH-FREQUENCY U.S. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES For key economic data releases, vendor is to provide an interpretive summary of the release with special emphasis on how the new information in the release, including revisions to past data, impacts the near-term economic outlook. These reports should be delivered within two hours of the release of the data. The releases covered should include employment; retail sales; construction put in place; vehicle sales; industrial production; advanced durable goods orders; manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders; housing starts; consumer prices; wholesale trade; international trade; productivity and costs; personal income and outlays, and GDP. The implications of these releases for vendor's near-term GDP estimate should be summarized and updated with each release. 2) WEEKLY SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS WITH LOOK AHEAD Vendor is to provide a weekly summary that discusses the implications of the past week's economic data releases and financial market developments for its forecasts of GDP growth, inflation, and financial markets. The summary should also include forecasts of the coming week's economic reports. 3) MONTHLY FORECAST UPDATES 3a) Each month vendor will provide a written summary of vendor's updated U.S. macroeconomic forecast. This summary should highlight important themes and changes in the economic outlook from the prior month's forecast. 3b) Each month vendor will provide a complete set of forecast tables covering nominal and real expenditure components of GDP and the corresponding prices; productivity, hours, employment and labor force; components of national and personal income; government expenditures and revenue; foreign transactions and related series; value-added by sector; housing and construction; key interest rates and other financial indicators; and other key indicators of production and prices. 3c) Each month vendor will describe in detail the underlying logic of vendor's forecast, including a summary of the key assumptions underlying the forecast. For key areas in the outlook, identification of the key drivers and the role of judgmental adjustments should be identified. 3d) Each month vendor will provide an executive summary of key features of its forecast. This summary is to be in "dashboard" format, i.e. an information-rich one-page textual and graphical summary of the vendor's forecast, focusing on themes, underlying assumptions, comparison to the consensus, and the key top-line elements of the vendor's forecast. 4) SECTORAL SUMMARIES Vendor will provide regularly updated summaries of key sectors of the economy that combine related high-frequency data and forecasts of key series from vendor's U.S. forecast. Reports are to be continuously updated as data they contain are released. Subject areas are to include inflation, the consumer sector, employment, housing, and the international sector. 5) SUMMARY OF FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY AND ASSUMPTIONS At least eight times annually, following each meeting of the FOMC, vendor will provide a report summarizing its view of the underlying motivation for the current stance of Federal Reserve policy and its expectations for prospective Fed policy. 6) QUARTERLY OVERVIEW OF FORECAST AND RISKS At least once per quarter vendor will provide a report that serves as a brief but complete overview of the vendor's macroeconomic view. The focus should be on the qualitative features of the forecast and of risks around the forecast. To the extent the vendor's views differ from the consensus, relevant details that help to account for the forecast difference should be highlighted. 7) QUARTERLY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS At least four times each year, vendor is to provide a written report that describes simulations of significant alternative scenarios that address key risks to the outlook. Such scenarios should attempt to incorporate in model simulations those key risks of major concern in order to arrive at alternative views of the outlook. 8) TEN-YEAR FORECASTS At least semi-annually, vendor is to provide a detailed U.S forecast extending ten years. 9) LICENSE OF VENDOR'S MODEL OF THE U.S. ECONOMY 9a) Vendor is to provide access (under license) of its macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy and the software appropriate to constructing simulations and reporting out the results. Software features should include the ability to produce presentation-quality graphics and tables and the ability of FHFA staff to append sub-models of their own design. Full documentation of the model is to be included. FHFA is to receive all upgrades to the model and software during the term of its license. 9b) Vendor is to provide one full day of on-site training in the model to FHFA staff. 9c) Each month vendor will provide to FHFA the data necessary to replicate vendors then current U.S. economic forecast. These updates are to include the historical data, as well as solution values for the endogenous variables, forecast exogenous variables, and adjustment factors. 10) TOPICAL MACROECONOMIC COMMENTARIES Vendor is expected to comment on topical macroeconomic issues, vital aspects of the economic outlook, and the important concerns of monetary and fiscal policy. Whether in separate reports or integrated into other enumerated reports, vendor is expected to express its views on macroeconomic topics that are of current interest. 11) CLIENT MEETINGS COVERING THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND RELATED ISSUES Vendor is to include invitations for up to two FHFA staff to attend its quarterly outlook meetings at no additional cost. Such meetings are to cover the U.S. economic outlook and related issues. 12) ACCESS TO VENDOR BY PHONE AND E-MAIL Vendor's senior staff are to be available during normal business hours by phone and e-mail to discuss matters related to the economic outlook and the macroeconomic model. 13) ON-LINE ACCESS TO REPORTS Vendor is to provide up to 10 FHFA staff with on-line access to the reports provided under this contract. PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE: The purchase order will be for a one-year base and four one-year options. SCHEDULE: Offerors should complete Attachment 1 and return it with the quote. The offeror shall provide the unit price for EACH item as well as the extended price for the Period of Performance identified above. SUBMISSION OF QUOTES: To be considered for award, please submit quotations electronically to [email protected] no later than 2:00 PM EST July 30, 2012. Questions are to be submitted in writing to [email protected] no later than 2:00 PM July 23, 2012. Quotations shall be submitted in accordance with FAR 52.212-1, Instructions to Offerors - Commercial Items (Jun 2008), and addendum, specified under the section "APPLICABLE CLAUSES". Quote should consist of the following: (1) Written quote addressing factors a, b, c, and (d) Price - Attachment 1, and (2) a copy of the License Agreement. APPLICABLE CLAUSES: This solicitation incorporates the provisions and clauses that are in effect through Federal Acquisition Regulation Circular 2005-59, effective May 15, 2012. Provisions FAR 52.212-1, Instructions to Offerors-Commercial Items (Feb 2012) and addendum are incorporated into this solicitation. Addendum to 52.212-1, Modify: (b) Submission of offer(s) is to read as follows: "Submit quotes electronically to [email protected]". Provision 52.212-2, Evaluation-Commercial Items (Jan 1999) is incorporated by reference with the following insert under (a): The following factors shall be used to evaluate offers: (a) Technical Capability and Approach - The Vendor shall provide a description of their technical capability and approach, detailed and complete enough to clearly and fully demonstrate an understanding of the Statement of Work (SOW) requirements. Quotations which merely offer to conduct a program in accordance with the requirements of the Government's SOW will not be eligible for award. Phrases such as "Standard procedures will be employed" and "well known techniques will be used" are not considered an adequate description. Although it is recognized that all of the technical criteria cannot be detailed in advance, the techniques and procedures you plan to follow in conjunction with the task areas to be performed must be described in as much detail as the Vendor considers necessary to fully explain their capability and proposed technical approach or method. At a minimum, the following should be addressed: 1. Demonstrate the cability to produce presentation-quality graphics and tables and the ability of FHFA staff to append sub-models of their own design. 2. Demonstrate the capability and approach to provide a solution that meets or exceeds the services (1 through 13) identified in the SOW. (b) Ability to Meet Delivery Schedule - Refer to Attachment 1. Delivery shall start on August 15, 2012. (c) Past Performance - The Government will evaluate recent and relevant past performance of each Vendor. This past performance may include either prime, subcontractor, and/or joint venture partners you consider most relevant in demonstrating your ability to perform the proposed effort. However, you must include at least one reference from the subcontractor if a large portion will be subcontracted. Submit up to three (3) projects performed by the Vendor or subcontractors that demonstrate recent and relevant past performance. Recent is defined as within the last three (3) years from the date of this RFQ. Relevant is defined as work similar in complexity and magnitude identified in the work requirements defined in Attachment A. Please include the following information: • Customer Name and Address • Contract Number/Contract Title/Contract Type • Delivery Schedule/Period of Performance • Contract Value • Description of the work performed • Customer Point of Contact (Name, Telephone Number and Address) for Business Manager and Technical Manager • Contracting Officer's name, address, telephone number and email address • Current status, e.g. completed and/or in progress, start and estimated completion dates • Key personnel, please identify those individuals who worked on the relevant project and are also proposed for this effort • A brief narrative of why your firm believes this reference is relevant to the proposed order Vendors are advised that by submitting a quote, the FHFA may use any data available in the evaluation of past performance. By submitting a quote, the Vendor acknowledges that they have received a consent letter from each applicable subcontractor, and/or joint venture partner, authorizing release by FHFA of adverse past performance information to the Vendor, so the Vendor can respond to such information. For each identified effort for a commercial customer (reference), the Vendor also acknowledges by submitting a quote they have also notified their references in writing that the reference is authorized to release to FHFA any of the Vendor's or proposed subcontractor(s)' past performance information directly to the FHFA. PAGE LIMITATION - Excluding cover pages, the technical quote (including all non-price factors a, b and c) is limited to twenty (20) pages. Paper size shall be 8 ½ X 11-inch white paper with printing on one side only. The font size (typewritten or printed letters) shall be equivalent to 12 point Times New Roman (with the exception of pre-printed product literature). No reduction is permitted except for organization charts, tables, or other graphic illustrations. In those instances where reduction is allowable, Vendors shall ensure that the print is not less than 10 point Times New Roman. Each page shall have text margins of at least one (1) inch on all sides and single line spacing. Header/footer information (which does not include any information to be evaluated) may be included in the margin space. The Vendor's quote shall not exceed the page limitations specified. Pages that exceed the maximum page limitation will not be evaluated. (d) Price - Complete Attachment 1 . Pricing should be submitted using the format provided under Attachment 1. There is no page limitation for factor d. BASIS FOR AWARD - The award will be made on the basis of the lowest evaluated price of quotess meeting or exceeding the acceptability standards for non-cost factors.